Hot on the heels of the Kindle Fire announcement yesterday, Joe Konrath just published a commentary on his predictions for the publishing industry from two years ago. He got most things right and a few of the others will no doubt happen not too far in the future.
Now, here are my own humble predictions for publishing in the next couple of years:
1. The sub-$50 ebook reader.
Honestly, this is hardly a predicition so much as it is simply inevitable. I feel embarrassed to put it here because it is so obvious...but to exclude it implies that "it might not happen."
It will happen. Soon.
We have the $79 Kindle this Christmas...look for the $49 Kindle next Christmas. Sub-$50 no-name ebook readers can often be found on sale at speciality retailers like NewEgg.com and Geeks.com...within six months, that will be the regular price and on-sale, they'll drop into the $30-40 range.
Look for more and more cheap Android tablets, more and more phones that make for good reading experiences.
The $25 disposable ebook reader is at most 3-5 years away...probably closer. Then traditional publishers are in a world of hurt.
2. The DRM backlash will finally happen.
When people realize they can't just move their books from device to device, the cry will begin...ultimately:
1) publishers will be forced to relent (doubtful, at least in the short term) or
2) indies (newbs and established authors who use DRM-free as a selling point) will ride the anti-DRM resentment to the tops of the best-seller lists and on the way there, ridicule the publishing establishment.
When (2) happens, draconian copyright legislation will be used against consumers, there will be much whining about piracy from the big publishers, certainly a big lawsuit or two brought by consumer groups...and still the indie authors will laugh all the way to the bank as they get more and more clout and more established authors jump ship.
Ultimately, the big publishers will be forced to go DRM-free. The question is how quickly and will they be progressive and thoughtful...or stupid and stubborn.
Me, I'm betting on stupid and stubborn, because that's what large corporate culture breeds.
DRM-free happened with music, it will happen with books. The question is when.
3. Traditional publishers will be rendered even more irrelevant.
The traditional book industry will do its best to ignore/mock/lie about this...but where the rubber meets the road (sales), the book industry is going to look more and more enfeebled as time goes on.
Just as Joe predicts, physical books will be a subsidiary revenue stream to supplement ebook revenues.
With the collapse of Borders (removing hundreds of physical outlets), B&N being forced to focus on e-books and cutting back on inventory in its retail outlets, and with WalMart/CostCo becoming more and more of the retail book industry, it's going to dramatically eliminate outlets for retail bookbuying and limit the available selection at the outlets that do remain...which in turn, will drive more and more consumers to better selection and pricing online.
Consumers who now split their purchasing between physical and online will go almost entirely online because they are so dissatisfied with the limited selection at the remaining outlets, or like me, find it impractical to drive to a physical book store.
Ebooks and online retailing of physical books will make having your book in a physical book store far less relevant (and less likely, too)...and physical presence is really the only card that traditional publishers have left.
People are going to switch to more and more online purchases...
4. Recommendations and Discoverability.
We'll see the popularization of great recommendation websites...and frankly, this is what the industry needs most (after eliminating DRM).
The industry really needs websites that assist with discoverability -- Amazon's services are fair at best; they're great when you already know exactly what you want and want something just like it. But you need something that captures more of the serendipity of stumbling upon cool stuff as happens in physical stores.
There are already a few sites that are part of this role (MobileRead, KindleBoards, GoodReads, LibraryThing, Shelfari)...but within the next two years, one or more of them are going to become really prominent beyond the smaller core ebook readers. One of them will hit StumbleUpon/Reddit/Digg/Delicious-type status as a "go to place" to find out what's new and cool in books.
God, please don't let the recommendation engine be Facebook.
5. On-demand book printing in every town.
(I place this 3-5 years down the road)
You'll see easy and affordable on-demand book printing in every small town across the country through every Starbucks/McDonalds (or a similar chain), through small coffee-shop/cafes, and you'll also see the return of the "small bookstore/cafe."
(This assumes that at some point, the self-preservation reflex kicks in at mainstream publishers and they decide to do *something* before they go out of business. If they keep on whistling past the graveyard and refuse to change, all bets are off.)
I know I just implied that physical book retailing is dead. But that's not true -- it will change in a major way, that gives the customer more choice than they have ever had while having an exceptionally small "store" footprint.
POD printers for books will be available at one or more major chain restaurants for printing books on demand while customers wait -- presumably the publishers get on board with this since they get to split the money while eliminating the costs of printing, warehousing, shipping and returns.
Immediate delivery of a physical book is the only advantage physical retailers have left and some (enough) people will pay a premium to get the book immediately.
I see this as being a natural for Starbucks, McDonalds,Dunkin Donuts, etc.
I see the potential for smaller bookstores to return (Waldenbooks-sized): Half of the space is devoted to 5-10,000 steadiest selling titles and an ample magazine/newsstand. The other half if a cafe where people are encouraged to hang out, where they can rent or borrow a book browser (tablet) if they don't have their own, and they can order a physical book and take delivery of it in 5-10 minutes (produced by a chain of POD printers in the back room).
6. International Epublishing Goes Mainstream
There's a whole world out there, over a billion of us, for whom English is our primary or at least commonly used language. The world ebook market could be huge...
Geographic limitations are another reason why traditional publishers are in for a world of hurt, while world-wide retailers like Smashwords are going to help authors reach worldwide audiences.
For the first time in human history, a person can write a story, article or book and make it instantly available to the entire world. It's a pretty mind-blowing proposition...and we are only just beginning to realize the potential of this global marketplace.
Showing posts with label Ebooks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ebooks. Show all posts
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Friday, February 5, 2010
Authors Love their Publishers...
Authors love their publishers...the way cattle love their farmer.
See the kind farmer, how he feeds and nurtures his cattle. How he takes care of them, protects them from the big, bad predators beyond the confines of the electric fence.
The farmer is looking out for the interests of his cattle out of the goodness of his heart, the cattle all moo to each other...right until they're shipped out to the big farm in the sky.
Right now, many authors are going on and on about how publishers like MacMillan are just looking out for the authors' interests in the battle against the big, bad Amazon wolf. (Commentary from John Scalzi, Catherynne M Valente, Scott Westerfield, Tobias Buckell -- of the group, I found Buckell's comments to be the most reasoned and insightful.)
Meanwhile, the publishers are paying authors tiny royalties from their ebook sales.
My fellow authors:
I know the publishing world is a big, scary place. I know many of you are turning to your publishers for comfort, the same way that Metallica suckled up to music labels when it started complaining about music downloading. But remember, the publisher is interested in you only for the money you can make for them.
Don't be part of the herd. Supply your books directly to ebook distributors. Even sell directly to readers.
Give readers what they want: open, non-DRMd formats, no geographic restrictions, decent pricing. Make decent royalties.
And take your fate into your own hands instead of waiting for the day that Farmer Brown decides you're no longer economically worthwhile and sends you off to be turned into a baseball glove.
Don't think it can happen to you? Go ask a midlist author or two whether or not it can happen to you.
Look at the economics:
With a big publisher, you need to sell tens upon tens of thousands of each book to make a living. On a typical 8-10% royalty, that's maybe 75 cents royalty per paperback sold. Say a target income of $30,000 a year = 40,000 books a year sold. That's a tough nut to crack in the current marketplace, what with returns, fighting for shelf space, etc.
Now, selling directly through ebook distributors: $2.99 ebook with 70% royalty = a little over $2.00 a book. Same income selling 15,000 books a year.
Yes, 15,000 is a lot of ebooks right now. But bear in mind, no warehouse or shipping costs. No fighting for shelf space, only mind share. Your books are instantly available around the world to anyone who speaks English with an internet connection and $3. Providing books in open, universal formats like HTML, PDF and txt helps, too.
Now, here's the kicker. Mix sales and giveaways of ebooks to increase awareness of yourself as an author and upsell readers to something really valuable: Write one novel a year and self-publish in a limited edition, autographed hardcover with bound-in CD extras: Interviews, behind the scenes, alternate scenes, etc....stuff you have lying around in your scraps folder anyway.
Sell the hardcover for $25 + shipping. Sell direct only to readers and at cons and appearances, or non-returnable to wholesalers who might be interested. Production cost is about $5, so you make a $20 profit.
Now, you're looking at a pretty viable business: Sell 1,000 limited edition hardcovers ($20,000), sell 5,000 ebooks ($10,000) and giveaway a whole bunch of freebies to prime the well. Anything above those numbers is gravy.
It's what's going to happen anyway...the question is, are you going to do it now and embrace the future...or wait until it's done to you?
Moo.
Addendum
Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to say "Amazon good, MacMillan bad." I've made it clear earlier that I believe MacMillan has every right to charge whatever the market will bear and Amazon should have let them...and I suspect Amazon is blocking that pricing because they want to dominate the ebook market.
A couple of points, however:
* I know it is NOT the publishers' fault for the death of the midlist--not entirely, anyway. Publishers are struggling to get books into stores with limited shelf-space. With the industry dominated by two major bricks-and-mortar retailers, those two companies can dictate a lot of terms.
But publishers, most of them now owned by large corporations, are obsessed with "swing for the fences" results--they want everything to be a big hit and aren't really all that concerned with nurturing a new generation of writers who can post reliable but unspectacular numbers.
* Amazon needs content to sell and they don't care if it comes from MacMillan or JoeNewb. You're not competing for shelf-space online and that is a HUGE issue for authors.
* I'm not blindly saying "trust Amazon." I don't trust Amazon. I'm not under any illusion that they'll pay out that 70% royalty one day longer than they need to, and when they dominate the market, they're going to whittle it down to something favorable to them.
* I don't own a dedicated ereader and never expect to own one. I think it's an interim technology, just like PDAs have turned out to be. Most people will end up reading their ebooks on laptops, netbook/smartbooks or portable media players.
I think dedicated ebook readers with proprietary formats and DRM are just a bad purchasing decision.
I get all of my ebooks as non-DRMd PDFs, Epubs, HTML or text downloads. If I can't get it that way, I just buy the mass market paperback. I buy a LOT of used books. Authors and publishers are missing out on a lot of royalties from more frugal readers like me.
HOWEVER, the thing to remember is that Amazon need not be the only game in town. In online retailing, they can be on top of the world this year...and in a heap o' trouble the next. I see companies along the lines of Smashwords.com becoming a major player in publishing. No DRM, open formats, great prices, no proprietary hardware--what's not to love?
I think a big part of that is the same few points I keep harping on every time: Non-DRM, open universal formats (HTML, PDF, txt...Epub I guess although I don't see the point), no geographic restrictions, very modest pricing.
With that combination and the freedom as an author to go where the best deal is, you can sell anywhere, anytime, to anyone and make a decent royalty...and give your fans a great product at a fair price. You are not at the mercy of any outside company.
The key is going to be "how to find ebooks you're interested in"? You'll see social aggregators like LibraryThing.com becoming much more important as people turn to them to find new authors, share ideas and catch up on "what's new and exciting." You'll see news and gossip sites dedicated to books and storytelling -- like Slashdot or Digg for books. That is where the power in publishing is going to end up.
See the kind farmer, how he feeds and nurtures his cattle. How he takes care of them, protects them from the big, bad predators beyond the confines of the electric fence.
The farmer is looking out for the interests of his cattle out of the goodness of his heart, the cattle all moo to each other...right until they're shipped out to the big farm in the sky.
Right now, many authors are going on and on about how publishers like MacMillan are just looking out for the authors' interests in the battle against the big, bad Amazon wolf. (Commentary from John Scalzi, Catherynne M Valente, Scott Westerfield, Tobias Buckell -- of the group, I found Buckell's comments to be the most reasoned and insightful.)
Meanwhile, the publishers are paying authors tiny royalties from their ebook sales.
My fellow authors:
I know the publishing world is a big, scary place. I know many of you are turning to your publishers for comfort, the same way that Metallica suckled up to music labels when it started complaining about music downloading. But remember, the publisher is interested in you only for the money you can make for them.
Don't be part of the herd. Supply your books directly to ebook distributors. Even sell directly to readers.
Give readers what they want: open, non-DRMd formats, no geographic restrictions, decent pricing. Make decent royalties.
And take your fate into your own hands instead of waiting for the day that Farmer Brown decides you're no longer economically worthwhile and sends you off to be turned into a baseball glove.
Don't think it can happen to you? Go ask a midlist author or two whether or not it can happen to you.
Look at the economics:
With a big publisher, you need to sell tens upon tens of thousands of each book to make a living. On a typical 8-10% royalty, that's maybe 75 cents royalty per paperback sold. Say a target income of $30,000 a year = 40,000 books a year sold. That's a tough nut to crack in the current marketplace, what with returns, fighting for shelf space, etc.
Now, selling directly through ebook distributors: $2.99 ebook with 70% royalty = a little over $2.00 a book. Same income selling 15,000 books a year.
Yes, 15,000 is a lot of ebooks right now. But bear in mind, no warehouse or shipping costs. No fighting for shelf space, only mind share. Your books are instantly available around the world to anyone who speaks English with an internet connection and $3. Providing books in open, universal formats like HTML, PDF and txt helps, too.
Now, here's the kicker. Mix sales and giveaways of ebooks to increase awareness of yourself as an author and upsell readers to something really valuable: Write one novel a year and self-publish in a limited edition, autographed hardcover with bound-in CD extras: Interviews, behind the scenes, alternate scenes, etc....stuff you have lying around in your scraps folder anyway.
Sell the hardcover for $25 + shipping. Sell direct only to readers and at cons and appearances, or non-returnable to wholesalers who might be interested. Production cost is about $5, so you make a $20 profit.
Now, you're looking at a pretty viable business: Sell 1,000 limited edition hardcovers ($20,000), sell 5,000 ebooks ($10,000) and giveaway a whole bunch of freebies to prime the well. Anything above those numbers is gravy.
It's what's going to happen anyway...the question is, are you going to do it now and embrace the future...or wait until it's done to you?
Moo.
Addendum
Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to say "Amazon good, MacMillan bad." I've made it clear earlier that I believe MacMillan has every right to charge whatever the market will bear and Amazon should have let them...and I suspect Amazon is blocking that pricing because they want to dominate the ebook market.
A couple of points, however:
* I know it is NOT the publishers' fault for the death of the midlist--not entirely, anyway. Publishers are struggling to get books into stores with limited shelf-space. With the industry dominated by two major bricks-and-mortar retailers, those two companies can dictate a lot of terms.
But publishers, most of them now owned by large corporations, are obsessed with "swing for the fences" results--they want everything to be a big hit and aren't really all that concerned with nurturing a new generation of writers who can post reliable but unspectacular numbers.
* Amazon needs content to sell and they don't care if it comes from MacMillan or JoeNewb. You're not competing for shelf-space online and that is a HUGE issue for authors.
* I'm not blindly saying "trust Amazon." I don't trust Amazon. I'm not under any illusion that they'll pay out that 70% royalty one day longer than they need to, and when they dominate the market, they're going to whittle it down to something favorable to them.
* I don't own a dedicated ereader and never expect to own one. I think it's an interim technology, just like PDAs have turned out to be. Most people will end up reading their ebooks on laptops, netbook/smartbooks or portable media players.
I think dedicated ebook readers with proprietary formats and DRM are just a bad purchasing decision.
I get all of my ebooks as non-DRMd PDFs, Epubs, HTML or text downloads. If I can't get it that way, I just buy the mass market paperback. I buy a LOT of used books. Authors and publishers are missing out on a lot of royalties from more frugal readers like me.
HOWEVER, the thing to remember is that Amazon need not be the only game in town. In online retailing, they can be on top of the world this year...and in a heap o' trouble the next. I see companies along the lines of Smashwords.com becoming a major player in publishing. No DRM, open formats, great prices, no proprietary hardware--what's not to love?
I think a big part of that is the same few points I keep harping on every time: Non-DRM, open universal formats (HTML, PDF, txt...Epub I guess although I don't see the point), no geographic restrictions, very modest pricing.
With that combination and the freedom as an author to go where the best deal is, you can sell anywhere, anytime, to anyone and make a decent royalty...and give your fans a great product at a fair price. You are not at the mercy of any outside company.
The key is going to be "how to find ebooks you're interested in"? You'll see social aggregators like LibraryThing.com becoming much more important as people turn to them to find new authors, share ideas and catch up on "what's new and exciting." You'll see news and gossip sites dedicated to books and storytelling -- like Slashdot or Digg for books. That is where the power in publishing is going to end up.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Can MacMillan Dictate Ebook Prices?
The Story So Far on "Ebook Smackdown"...
* Amazon dictates ebook pricing to the publishing industry. Much grumbling ensues.
* Publishers insist that ebooks cost as much to produce as printed books.
(My opinion--if they really do, you're doing it wrong. Time to get into another business.).
* MacMillan is emboldened by Apple's whispering sweet nothings in its ear about the IPad, which can apparently bring about world peace, solve hunger and display ebooks.
* MacMillan tries to dictate ebook pricing to Amazon.
* Amazon responds by delisting all of MacMillan's books, including printed ones.
* Publishing goes nuts. Authors and publishers alike demonize Amazon. Readers don't understand why they can't purchase books they had access to before the weekend.
* Two days later, Amazon surrenders. Publishers are happy. Authors appear to be happy. Amazon looks foolish. Steve Jobs still looks smug peddling an inferior tablet computer that doesn't even have USB ports or play Flash.
Which Brings Us to Now:
Teleread.org, one of the better sites chronicling the ebook wars, posts an interesting article on the Amazon/MacMillan fallout.
The article essentially makes the case that MacMillan has acted unethically if not illegally. Many authors who publish through MacMillan (and a few other companies) have called for a boycott of Amazon.
Personally, I think MacMillan has stepped into a big, steaming pile of fail. If everyone else in the industry follows suit, as this article suggests they might, you're about to see big publishing get mightily humbled by small presses and independent authors.
MacMillan does have the right to decide what it is going to charge for its products. And consumers have no choice but to pay those prices if they insist on reading those particular books.
That is how capitalism works.
But readers are not powerless. In fact, quite the opposite.
You see, boycotts cut two ways.
Readers, remember that you have the money.
So what if MacMillan wants to move the price up to $14.99?
But there are over 100,000 new books published every year. Most of them are by small presses and independent authors. And many of them are smart enough to be willing to sell you an ebook for $9.99...or $4.99...or $1.99.
Boycott the big boys. Support the companies that "get it."
Be sure to let MacMillan know that you won't be purchasing any of their books until they compromise. Not just ebooks...any books published by them at all, print or ebook.
Be sure to let the authors who work for this publisher know that you are boycotting them, too. It's not personal, it's just that $9.99 is a fair price for an ebook, thank you very much, and if you expect me to pay $14.99, then I will gladly purchase ebooks from another company.
There are plenty of companies that "get it." Baen, Smashwords, BooksForABuck and a whole host of small presses and independent authors go out of their way to keep their prices fair. Many of them offer ebooks without DRM, too, because they understand that DRM sucks.
Personally, I will gladly sell you my Outlaw Galaxy ebooks for $1-2, without DRM.
Support publishers that get it...and let the authors you love know that you're voting with your wallet.
Remember, boycotts cut two ways.
-- Bill Smith
BillSmithBooks.com
* Amazon dictates ebook pricing to the publishing industry. Much grumbling ensues.
* Publishers insist that ebooks cost as much to produce as printed books.
(My opinion--if they really do, you're doing it wrong. Time to get into another business.).
* MacMillan is emboldened by Apple's whispering sweet nothings in its ear about the IPad, which can apparently bring about world peace, solve hunger and display ebooks.
* MacMillan tries to dictate ebook pricing to Amazon.
* Amazon responds by delisting all of MacMillan's books, including printed ones.
* Publishing goes nuts. Authors and publishers alike demonize Amazon. Readers don't understand why they can't purchase books they had access to before the weekend.
* Two days later, Amazon surrenders. Publishers are happy. Authors appear to be happy. Amazon looks foolish. Steve Jobs still looks smug peddling an inferior tablet computer that doesn't even have USB ports or play Flash.
Which Brings Us to Now:
Teleread.org, one of the better sites chronicling the ebook wars, posts an interesting article on the Amazon/MacMillan fallout.
The article essentially makes the case that MacMillan has acted unethically if not illegally. Many authors who publish through MacMillan (and a few other companies) have called for a boycott of Amazon.
Personally, I think MacMillan has stepped into a big, steaming pile of fail. If everyone else in the industry follows suit, as this article suggests they might, you're about to see big publishing get mightily humbled by small presses and independent authors.
MacMillan does have the right to decide what it is going to charge for its products. And consumers have no choice but to pay those prices if they insist on reading those particular books.
That is how capitalism works.
But readers are not powerless. In fact, quite the opposite.
You see, boycotts cut two ways.
Readers, remember that you have the money.
So what if MacMillan wants to move the price up to $14.99?
But there are over 100,000 new books published every year. Most of them are by small presses and independent authors. And many of them are smart enough to be willing to sell you an ebook for $9.99...or $4.99...or $1.99.
Boycott the big boys. Support the companies that "get it."
Be sure to let MacMillan know that you won't be purchasing any of their books until they compromise. Not just ebooks...any books published by them at all, print or ebook.
Be sure to let the authors who work for this publisher know that you are boycotting them, too. It's not personal, it's just that $9.99 is a fair price for an ebook, thank you very much, and if you expect me to pay $14.99, then I will gladly purchase ebooks from another company.
There are plenty of companies that "get it." Baen, Smashwords, BooksForABuck and a whole host of small presses and independent authors go out of their way to keep their prices fair. Many of them offer ebooks without DRM, too, because they understand that DRM sucks.
Personally, I will gladly sell you my Outlaw Galaxy ebooks for $1-2, without DRM.
Support publishers that get it...and let the authors you love know that you're voting with your wallet.
Remember, boycotts cut two ways.
-- Bill Smith
BillSmithBooks.com
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Mediocrity, thy Name is IPad
Well, today was the big day: The day when Apple was going to revolutionize computing and digital media. The day when Steve Jobs was going to unveil the new "most important thing" he's ever worked on. The day when Apple was going to show the world its revolutionary tablet...And ta-da, the IPad is here!!!
You're kidding, right? I mean, that's it? That's the big deal?
Really?
Meh.
I mean the IPad is cute and all. I'm sure it will be a dandy portable media player...just like your netbook or laptop is now.
But that's the problem: It can only do a fraction of what your current netbook or laptop does but it's more expensive.
On top of that, Apple has made some terrible design decisions (according to early reports):
* No Flash video, so surfing the web is going to suck.
* No USB or smart card ports, so you can't attach your own external memory--the only way to transfer files will be through the proprietary Apple software on your PC.
* No multi-tasking, no running more than one application at a time. Gone are the heady days of surfing the web AND writing Email or IMing people at the same time. Boy, I sure do miss 1996.
* You can't download any applications except those approved by Apple and sold through the Apple store. So Apple has a stranglehold on what you will be allowed to do with "your" computer. They'll also have a decent stranglehold on the media you're allowed to consume to, since your only choice will be downloading through them or loading from your PC.
* Imagine if Apple decides to block applications or competitors they don't like, not unlike the current Google Voice dust-up.
Now, compare that to the fact that current netbooks and Linux tablets do more, cost less and are free to use as you like. The upcoming crop of tablets will offer more at a better price.
I don't think the IPad is a disaster in the making or anything like that...but even the name IPad reeks of mediocrity. It's uninspired. And the competition will be vastly superior in short order.
IMeh. IFail. IBrick.
IDon'tCare.
You're kidding, right? I mean, that's it? That's the big deal?
Really?
Meh.
I mean the IPad is cute and all. I'm sure it will be a dandy portable media player...just like your netbook or laptop is now.
But that's the problem: It can only do a fraction of what your current netbook or laptop does but it's more expensive.
On top of that, Apple has made some terrible design decisions (according to early reports):
* No Flash video, so surfing the web is going to suck.
* No USB or smart card ports, so you can't attach your own external memory--the only way to transfer files will be through the proprietary Apple software on your PC.
* No multi-tasking, no running more than one application at a time. Gone are the heady days of surfing the web AND writing Email or IMing people at the same time. Boy, I sure do miss 1996.
* You can't download any applications except those approved by Apple and sold through the Apple store. So Apple has a stranglehold on what you will be allowed to do with "your" computer. They'll also have a decent stranglehold on the media you're allowed to consume to, since your only choice will be downloading through them or loading from your PC.
* Imagine if Apple decides to block applications or competitors they don't like, not unlike the current Google Voice dust-up.
Now, compare that to the fact that current netbooks and Linux tablets do more, cost less and are free to use as you like. The upcoming crop of tablets will offer more at a better price.
I don't think the IPad is a disaster in the making or anything like that...but even the name IPad reeks of mediocrity. It's uninspired. And the competition will be vastly superior in short order.
IMeh. IFail. IBrick.
IDon'tCare.
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